Estofex für Morgen 26. Februar 06:00 UTC:
Na was wird uns morgen wohl erwarten? Die Analyse ist von TUSHY, nicht so mein Favorit.Forecasting winter time thunderstorms is not always fun, which is the case in the following outlook. From a synoptic perspective, good forcing enters E-France and SW-Germany during the morning hours as an approaching short wave still features a strong cyclonic kink. However, this feature leaves the deep baroclinic zone (placed over central France and Switzerland) and enters a weakly sheared and diffluent coined environment over Germany, so gradual lessening is forecast already during the late morning hours. Further down in the lower troposphere, no real frontal system accompanies the upper vorticity lobe (besides a diffuse cold front). Some wrap around moisture seeps in from the west just behind the cold front, but the best moisture remains north of the area of interest (e.g. Luxembourg and N/central Germany). In addition, LL trajectories feature a long track over the Iberian Peninsula and France, where nocturnal cool down helped to stabilize the eastward moving air mass, so we see no reason for good PBL air mass quality. To summarize all that, we may see some sort of forced line of showers and isolated, embedded thunderstorms over E-France and SW-Germany between 06-12Z. The wind field is strong with 850hPa winds running well above 20m/s, so severe wind gusts will be a good call. A level 1 for severe wind gusts was issued with low lightning probabilities, as not much activity is expected.
Gruss
Dominic
, lässt IMAPWeather auf eine zweite Zelle, Zugrichtung NO hoffen. 
