Severe Weather Outlook von StormSpotterLive
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
STORM SPOTTER LIVE METOPS BEDFORD TEXAS
145PM CDT WED MAY 10 2006 -UPDATED-
...ALABAMA & MISSISSIPPI FORECAST TORNADO OUTBREAK TODAY & TONIGHT...
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
STORMSPOTTERLIVE METOPS IN BEDFORD TX IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A SOME STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE:
WESTERN 2/3 OF ALABAMA
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
RATHER VOLATILE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND ADJACENT REGIONS TODAY AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. (SEE FORECAST BELOW)
(Hatched Area indicates 10% or Greater chance of F2-F5 Tornado within 25 miles of a given point)
FORECAST DYNAMICS: THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT. INCREASING WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SOME ROTATING STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES... THE OVERALL THREAT FOR TORNADOES LOOKS TO BE HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA.
A COMPLEX OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS PLACED NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION, MOST NOTABLY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS FOR THE TODAY.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AND STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AND MOVE EAST ALONG CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI SURFACE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY ORGANIZE INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GOLF BALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO 70 OR 80 MPH. ANY SUPERCELL NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG (F2-F5 IN STRENGTH).
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO MONITOR STORMSPOTTERLIVE...LOCAL MEDIA...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. FOR ALERTS SENT DIRECTLY TO YOU SUBSCRIBE TO WEATHERNETLIVE.
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... s/rgnlrad/
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Gruss Chrigi
- Editiert von Christian Matthys am 11.05.2006, 03:19 -
Das Outflow Boundary des MCS allerdings könnte später eine wichtige Rolle in der Entwicklung von Tornados spielen.
