Quelle: http://www.estofex.org/Massive Central and Alpine Region, Black Forest...
... due to diurnal heating the convective temperature is reached and convection is about to start. Due to a lack of synoptic scale vertical motion, convection is strongly coupled to ororgraphy (mesoscale vertical motion). CAPE is about 1000 to 1500 J/kg as Payerne and Wien soundings indicate. Deep layer shear is only about 10 m/s. Thus pulsating storms and new developments at their outflow boundaries are morst likely. Large to locally very large hail at the beginning oft he cell development as well as excessive precipitation in a later stage are most prominent. But also a severe wind gust can not be ruled out.
Convection should slowly decay in the later evening hours, due to the lack of diurnal heating and synoptic scale vertical motion.
Zeigt die Gefahren und mögliche mesoskalige Szenarien auf, aber natürlich können bei dieser Wetterlage auch die Fexler nicht sagen, wo und wann was wie schnell hochgeht.
Gruss
Chris
