Convective Outlook:High Risk über den Südstaaten!
Verfasst: Mo 11. Apr 2005, 18:57
Hallo,
da kommt wohl was auf die Südstaaten zu!
Forecast Discussion
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
POE 25 W ESF 35 N ESF 25 ESE MLU 30 S GLH 40 NNW JAN JAN 45 NW BTR
40 NW LFT 35 SE POE 15 ESE POE.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
UOX 20 ESE TUP 15 SSE CBM 10 NE LUL 20 SE MCB LFT 15 SSE LCH BPT 35
N BPT 40 W POE 55 SE SHV 30 NW MLU 35 N GLH 45 SSW MEM 25 NNW UOX 30
NE UOX.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
PSX 20 W HOU 20 ENE GGG 15 N PGO BVO 20 E HUT 60 SSW HSI 20 NNW EAR
45 WNW OFK 30 SE FSD FRM 35 S RST SPI 40 SE MVN 20 WNW BNA 45 WSW
CHA AUO 30 WNW PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 45 SW MSO
20 SW S80 40 S PDT 70 SW PDT 40 SSW DLS ONP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP 50 SSE AUS
60 E ACT 20 NNW PRX 15 NNW TUL 20 SW ICT 45 WSW RSL 20 S MCK 30 SE
ANW 20 NNE 9V9 20 W ABR 25 SE DVL 35 N TVF 45 SE RRT 25 W DLH 15 S
MKE 25 ESE DAY 30 SW EKN 55 E DAN GSB 20 ESE FAY 45 WNW FLO 20 ENE
AVL 30 S TYS 50 WNW AHN 40 SE ATL 10 ESE AQQ.
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF ERN LA
AND WEST CENTRAL MS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN TX...LA AND MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...
...SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EXTREME SERN TX EWD
ACROSS SRN/ERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR AND MOST OF MS.
...SERN TWX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO
SERN TX AND IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 15 KT DUE TO STRONG MERIDIONAL LOW
ALOFT. DEEPER TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS LIFTED NWD ACROSS SRN LA WITH
MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF MS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...LIFT
WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY VERY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
AHEAD OF THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 60 KT
LATER TODAY AS A 75 KT SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. ALSO...SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE
MID LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 1KM
SRH BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2. THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES ...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG LIVED.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST WHERE STRONGER INSOLATION
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LA NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL MS DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS A SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY ACROSS LA/SERN TX...IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD AS THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE MS AND AL OVERNIGHT.
...ERN KS/WRN MO NWD TO SE NEB/SW IA...
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO MO TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/500 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM -20 TO -22C/ AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VORTICITY NEAR THE
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ELY/SELY WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW MAY BE SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
...EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY
STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..IMY.. 04/11/2005
...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
Quelle: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Grüsse Peter
da kommt wohl was auf die Südstaaten zu!
Forecast Discussion
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON APR 11 2005
VALID 111630Z - 121200Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE
POE 25 W ESF 35 N ESF 25 ESE MLU 30 S GLH 40 NNW JAN JAN 45 NW BTR
40 NW LFT 35 SE POE 15 ESE POE.
THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
UOX 20 ESE TUP 15 SSE CBM 10 NE LUL 20 SE MCB LFT 15 SSE LCH BPT 35
N BPT 40 W POE 55 SE SHV 30 NW MLU 35 N GLH 45 SSW MEM 25 NNW UOX 30
NE UOX.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
PSX 20 W HOU 20 ENE GGG 15 N PGO BVO 20 E HUT 60 SSW HSI 20 NNW EAR
45 WNW OFK 30 SE FSD FRM 35 S RST SPI 40 SE MVN 20 WNW BNA 45 WSW
CHA AUO 30 WNW PFN.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW FCA 45 SW MSO
20 SW S80 40 S PDT 70 SW PDT 40 SSW DLS ONP.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CRP 50 SSE AUS
60 E ACT 20 NNW PRX 15 NNW TUL 20 SW ICT 45 WSW RSL 20 S MCK 30 SE
ANW 20 NNE 9V9 20 W ABR 25 SE DVL 35 N TVF 45 SE RRT 25 W DLH 15 S
MKE 25 ESE DAY 30 SW EKN 55 E DAN GSB 20 ESE FAY 45 WNW FLO 20 ENE
AVL 30 S TYS 50 WNW AHN 40 SE ATL 10 ESE AQQ.
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF ERN LA
AND WEST CENTRAL MS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTREME SERN TX...LA AND MS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...
...SIGNFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES...
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EXTREME SERN TX EWD
ACROSS SRN/ERN LA...EXTREME SERN AR AND MOST OF MS.
...SERN TWX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SERN AR SWWD INTO
SERN TX AND IS ONLY MOVING EWD AT 15 KT DUE TO STRONG MERIDIONAL LOW
ALOFT. DEEPER TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS LIFTED NWD ACROSS SRN LA WITH
MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MUCAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS
DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF MS THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH HEATING...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...LIFT
WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY VERY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...WHICH SHOULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
AHEAD OF THE LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 60 KT
LATER TODAY AS A 75 KT SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. ALSO...SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO SWLY IN THE
MID LEVELS ARE RESULTING IN STRONGLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS...WITH 1KM
SRH BETWEEN 200-250 M2/S2. THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WOULD SUPPORT TORNADOES ...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG LIVED.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE THE GREATEST WHERE STRONGER INSOLATION
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT
APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LA NEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL MS DURING
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS A SPEED MAX IN SWRN TX LIFTS NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT...THE CONVECTIVE LINE...CURRENTLY ACROSS LA/SERN TX...IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD AS THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE MS AND AL OVERNIGHT.
...ERN KS/WRN MO NWD TO SE NEB/SW IA...
LOW/MID LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL KS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO MO TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/500 MB TEMPERATURES
FROM -20 TO -22C/ AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE THE STRONGEST. THE PRESENCE OF STRONG VORTICITY NEAR THE
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL ELY/SELY WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW MAY BE SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
...EXTREME ERN OK/WRN AR/SW MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 50S AND A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY ALLOW
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY
STORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..IMY.. 04/11/2005
...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.
Quelle: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Grüsse Peter