HIGH Risk in den USA
Verfasst: Mo 24. Mai 2004, 11:55
Könnte einen weiteren Outbreak geben heute Abend:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Für's Archiv:
...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY
TODAY...
...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING ERN NEB AND SRN
IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE KC AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE
COMES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUNCH EWD...SPREADING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SETUP A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN IA AND NRN MO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 55 TO 65 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BACKING SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN MO AND
SERN IA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
(0-3 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE BACKED
SFC FLOW WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH EVEN A
VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD...A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE
EVENING. A SWATH OF VERY HIGH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
RISK AREA CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A VERY LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS WRN IA/ERN NEB AND KS AS A PLUME
OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUNCHES EWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN MCS FEEDS OFF
OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE
TONIGHT.
Gruss Bernhard
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
Für's Archiv:
...THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY
TODAY...
...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS/SRN PLAINS...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS LIKELY REACHING ERN NEB AND SRN
IA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE KC AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE
COMES OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PUNCH EWD...SPREADING STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SETUP A
FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SRN IA AND NRN MO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 55 TO 65 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT BACKING SFC WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NRN MO AND
SERN IA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES
(0-3 KM SRH OF 400-500 M2/S2). ANY STORMS THAT FORM IN THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE BACKED
SFC FLOW WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH EVEN A
VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY EWD...A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE SHOULD OCCUR AND THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
SHOULD DRAMATICALLY INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN THE
EVENING. A SWATH OF VERY HIGH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE HIGH
RISK AREA CONSIDERING THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND HIGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A VERY LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS WRN IA/ERN NEB AND KS AS A PLUME
OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PUNCHES EWD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS AN MCS FEEDS OFF
OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MOVING INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE
TONIGHT.
Gruss Bernhard
