Schweizer Sturmforum

A level 2 was issued across Eastern Spain, France, parts of Switzerland, southern Germany, and northwestern Austria for (very) large hail, damaging winds, and to a lesser extent for heavy rainfall.
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Spain, France, Switzerland, South Germany, Northwest Austria...

Ample low-level humidity with dew points of 18-20 C across lower and 14-18 across higher terrain is expected across the level 2 axis. Within this axis, 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and locally higher courtesy of steep lapse rates above the boundary layer that extend to 600 - 500 hPa. Convective initiation is expected across the mountains of East Spain and Central France. As 20-25 m/s of rather unidirectional deep-layer shear is in place, splitting storms are expected with a threat of very large (> 5 cm) hail and locally damaging winds. It is possible that some storms will develop into bow segments with a more widespread damaging wind gust risk. The centre of convective activity should move from East France to Switzerland into South Germany during the afternoon and evening. During the evening, storm coverage is forecast to increase over far northern Spain and south-central France in response to the upper-level trough. These storms may initially also produce (very) large hail. North of the level 2 axis across France, CAPE and wind shear are lower, but they should be sufficient for sustaining more isolated to scattered severe storms.

Willi hat geschrieben: ↑Di 21. Jun 2022, 17:16 Ach die Modelle.

Cosmo (search,ch) hat, für heute Abend, (fast) alles weggebügelt.
Arome hat noch was den Voralpen entlang.
ICON hat dafür einen Rightmover aus dem Jura durchs Mittelland.

Da soll noch einer drauskommen. Was jetzt?