Wieder ein Supersommer?

[Mike (Thun)]

Erhalten über die Energy & Climate News (24 July 2006)

Global Warming, Not Just Heat Wave

Inter Press Service, 21 July 2006 - The heat wave sweeping Europe is a direct consequence of the warming of the earth's atmosphere, experts say.
"We are observing and suffering the first effects of global warming," Hervé Le Treut, meteorologist at the French Centre for Scientific Research told IPS.

"The emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, are leading to higher temperatures all over the world, but these are observed in an irregular manner across the continents," he said. "The global weather is clearly disturbed."

Record temperatures of well over 35 degrees Celsius were recorded all over Europe this week. On Jul. 20 Paris and Berlin registered 39 degrees. In Belgium, Jul. 19 was the hottest day ever in July, with 37 degrees.

The July maximum temperature record was also broken in Britain. The mercury reached 36.5 Celsius at the Royal Horticultural Society's gardens at Wisley in Surrey. The previous record for July, 36 degrees, was set in Epsom in 1911.

"Europa achicharrada", the weekly Spanish newspaper El Semanal declared, meaning "Europe burned to a crisp".

The heat wave has led to several deaths across Europe.

French minister of health Xavier Bertrand said Jul. 19 that at least nine people had died this summer, victims of the heat. "I ask everybody to be conscious of the health risks (of elderly people), because during the next days temperatures will remain so high that human organisms will not be able to recover rapidly," Bertrand said at a press conference in Paris.

In Spain, at least two heat wave deaths have been reported. Both victims were bricklayers, who died at work. In Germany and the Netherlands, four people died of cardio-vascular complications provoked by the heat.

But this year's death toll remains low compared to some 35,000 people who died across Europe in the heat wave of 2003. That year 15,000 people, mostly the elderly, died in France.

"The heat wave of 2003 reached its climax during August," Le Treut said. "This year temperatures have been over the average already during the spring. The hottest days are still ahead of us."

Another reason for the relatively low number of deaths this year is the warning system introduced by health authorities, especially in France. "After the drama of 2003 we prepared a vigilance plan which has been functioning since Jun. 1," Gilles Bruecker, director of the French Institute of Health Surveillance told IPS. "We wanted to anticipate the risks, and prevent any deaths."

The plan provides for particular attention to the elderly and children. A ban on intensive sports activity during the hottest parts of the day is in force all over the country. Water use is being rationed, with bans on filling private swimming pools, and controls on watering gardens. Britain has banned use of hosepipes.

More and hotter such summers lie ahead. Temperatures registered in Europe since 1900 show that there is now a larger number of hotter days every year. "The number of days with temperatures higher than 25 degrees is growing regularly," says Serge Planton, director of the Centre for Weather Research at Toulouse in France.

"On average, the temperature in Europe has grown about one degree since 1900, resulting in a climatic shift," Planton told IPS. "The greenhouse effect, provoked by the emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide, will lead to a warming of between 2.5 and 5 degrees in Europe towards the year 2100."

Most European experts see a similar scenario ahead. "A superficial review of temperature statistics in Europe shows that weather is getting warmer by the year," Franz-Josef Loepmeier, meteorologist at the German Weather Service told IPS. "We will not see palm trees grow in Germany, but summers will be hotter in the years to come, unless humankind as a whole does something consistent against global warming."

Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, professor at the German Institute for Weather Research based in Potsdam near Berlin, agrees.. "The weather changes we are observing are mostly caused by human activities, especially the emission of greenhouse gases," he told IPS.

Gerstengarbe said that over the last century temperatures in Germany rose 0.8 degrees. "Over the next 75 years, we expect a warming of between 1.8 to 3..6 degrees for our region."

The heat is also taking its toll on agriculture, and affecting the generation of electricity, especially in nuclear power plants.

The lack of fresh water for the nuclear plants' cooling systems has led German private electricity suppliers to slow down their generators.

In France, the state-owned Electricité de France (EdF) was allowed to continue to drain hot water from the cooling system into rivers, although the water temperatures exceeded the limits imposed by environmental authorities. But output has had to be lowered.

EdF has been importing electricity to compensate the nuclear power plants' lower performance. Eighty percent of electricity generated in France is produced by nuclear power plants.

In Italy, hydroelectric plants have had to slow down due to a shortage of water in rivers.

European agriculture has also been hit by the heat wave and the drought.

In Germany, president of the association of farmers Gerd Sonnleitner told the press that this year's harvest on cereals would be 10 to 15 percent lower than in 2004, for which figures are available. "We had excellent expectations, but the heat and the drought have destroyed them."

In France farmers say the heat has damaged harvests. Livestock breeders said they have been forced to exhaust their forage reserves.

"This is the fourth successive drought we are suffering," Jean-Luc Poulain, commissioner for risks management at the French Association of Farmers told IPS. "We have not been able to reconstitute our stocks. And the situation gets worse by the day."

Quelle

[fischer 1000]

Huch, ging ja schneller als ich wetten wollte;

http://tagesschau.sf.tv/nachrichten/arc ... htes/43086

Und hier nähern wir uns langsam wieder einer neuen Bestmarke;
http://www.vorarlberg.at/pdf/aktuelleja ... glinie.pdf

Leider ist Link noch nicht aktualliesiert...

@ Fabienne:
Hab im Radio gehört, dass der aktuelle Juli der wärmste wird seit Messbeginn, so ca. 4-5 Grad!

Cu
Andi

[Federwolke]

Hoi Andi

Hab im Radio gehört, dass der aktuelle Juli der wärmste wird seit Messbeginn, so ca. 4-5 Grad!

Hab ich auch schon irgendwo gehört... Moment mal, wo war das noch gleich?
Ach ja: heut Mittag im Büro hat mich so ein Depeschen-Journi am Telefon darüber ausgefragt.

So schliesst sich der Kreis...

[Chrigu Riggisberg]

Hallo zäme

Mit etwas Genugtuung kann ich Ende Juli feststellen, dass meine Langzeitprognose vom 14. Juli gar nicht so übel war. Zwar endet der Juli 2006 nicht mit einem Wärmeüberschuss von "nur" 3°C, sondern mit krassen 5°C. Die Abkühlung wurde immer wie weiter hinausgeschoben (trifft übrigens auch auf kommende Woche zu) und trat nun in abgeschwächter Form doch noch ein.

Nun bleibt die Frage offen, ob dies nun Glück war oder nicht. Grundsätzlich finde ich die wiederholte (das sei besonders betont) Beobachtung von Ensembles sinnvoll. Bleiben die gleichen Tendenzen über mehrere Modellläufe hinweg erhalten, lässt sich doch mit einer bestimmten Sicherheit eine grobe Prognose für 10-15 Tagen wagen. Hingegen sind Ensembles unbrauchbar, wenn man nur einen einzigen Lauf beachtet.

Zum Schluss noch meine Prognose für das erste August-Drittel: Abkühlung (voraussichtlich ab Donnerstag) auf normale bis leicht zu kühle Temperaturbedingungen. Danach nur langsame "Wiedererwärmung", falls das nicht auch hinausgezögert wird.

Gruss Chrigu

[Federwolke]

[Matt (Thalwil)]

ohne Kommentar

[An.Di.]

@ Mat : ohhhh doch, ich kommentiere : *heul*

[Stefan, Wichtrach]

nehmen wir doch einen Gitterpunkt, der in der Schweiz liegt. Heute haben wir ja auf 100km auch bis über 3 Grad Differenz auf gleicher Höhe (Bern hat wärmer als Basel und Genf einen Sommertag . )

[Stefan, Wichtrach]

So der Sommer ist vorbei und brachte Abwechslung

Jetzt möchte ich aber mal fragen:
Findet ihr es nicht besorgniserregend, dass wir die letzten 4 Jahre die 3 wärmsten Monate seit Messbgeinn hatten?
Alle Rekorde gebrochen, wärmster Juni, Juli und wärmster August.
1 2/3 des Sommers 2006 konnten sich mit 2003 messen.

Nun müssten wir ja fast alle 2 Jahre mit einem heissen Monat (über 21°C im Mittel) rechnen.

[Uwe/Eschlikon]

@Stefan:
Doch, es ist besorginserregend. Am meisten bekommt das die Alpenregion zu spüren, wo Eis- und Permafrostschmelze viel Lockergeschiebe zurück lassen, das früher oder später zu Tale donnern wird.

Die Kurve der Erwärmung zeigt in der Schweiz weiterhin steil nach oben (das habe ich schon in anderen Postings auf Grund von 30-jährigen Gleitwerten aufgezeigt), ebenso zeigt die Niederschlagssumme nach oben. Je wärmer, desto feuchter, so sieht es zur Zeit aus. Und trotzdem werden die Trockenzeiten immer länger. Das bedeutet, es fällt auch immer mehr NS in immer kürzere Zeit.
Folge: öfters Überschwemmung oder Rekordschneemengen, immer öfters "Durststrecken" in der Natur. Und immer grössere regionale Unterschiede. Als Bsp. möchte ich nochmals das Oberwallis im vergangenen August erwähnen. Während es hier kaum Tage ohne Regen gab, liefen dort Tag und Nacht die Bewässerungsanlagen!