Schweizer Sturmforum

I can now tell you, at this level of activity, we still need to wait several weeks until we see a proper sized eruption. Unless a string of M5 quakes hits, then an eruption would just be hours away, if that number of M5 quakes is near 10 (or same equivalent cumulative seismic energy), or one M6 event or near that.

Why is this?

The GPS stations at both sides of the intrusion taking place at Bardarbunga show a lateral displacement of around 2cm per day (1cm/day in both directions).

During the last rifting event at Bardarbunga, the rifting displacement was around 1.5 meters (150cm) as the fissure opened, over some 15km. Let’s say we expect an event about half of it. To be on the conservative side. And 7km is just the same as Gjálp.

At this rate, we will need 35 days, to see a displacement of 75cm as the rift opens.

Total energy combined is probably equivalent to a M5. Until yesterday I calculated total energy to be about M4.5. Today it nears M5 (total cummulative seismic energy). That equates to a displacement of a few cms, which is what is actually taken place. Which is too little!

One M6 equates to a displacement of 50cm, so it is near what it is necessary to see such a fissure ripping apart of sufficient lenght; or a string of 10 quakes at M5.

Thus until this moment, only about 1/10th of the threshold energy has been released.

So this gives 10 times longer time, until we see an eruption of the type I assumed, if the current level of activity keeps.

But a few M5 quakes would quickly speed the process, to only a few days necessary.

So I predict to see either more 9 times of intrusions with the same sort of intensity (if such activity would now stop – which seems to be unlikely at the moment), or this intrusion continues for more 35 days (until mid September), or the energy increases until the level of several M5 or one M6 event (which at current level of increasing activity is just a few days ahead). If this intrusion continues for some more days but then dies down, then we would still need another one or few repeats of same intensity, until a fissure event.

Consider this the threshold.
Now, you know when to expect the start of the eruption.

Simple maths.

Erdbebenschwarm am Bardarbunga dauert an – Plötzlicher Anstieg der Erdbebenaktivität – Spekulationen um einsetzende Eruption – Anhebung der Warnstufe (Flugverbot) möglich